Stephen Hawking is said to have claimed that semiconductor manufacturers have but two fundamental problems: (1) the finite speed of light and (2) the atomic nature of matter [Gar07]. It is possible that semiconductor manufacturers are approaching these limits, but there are nevertheless a few avenues of research and development focused on working around these fundamental limits.
One workaround for the atomic nature of matter are so-called ``high-K dielectric'' materials, which allow larger devices to mimic the electrical properties of infeasibly small devices. These materials pose some severe fabrication challenges, but nevertheless may help push the frontiers out a bit farther. Another more-exotic workaround stores multiple bits in a single electron, relying on the fact that a given electron can exist at a number of energy levels. It remains to be seen if this particular approach can be made to work reliably in production semiconductor devices.
Another proposed workaround is the ``quantum dot'' approach that allows much smaller device sizes, but which is still in the research stage.
Although the speed of light would be a hard limit, the fact is that semiconductor devices are limited by the speed of electrons rather than that of light, given that electrons in semiconductor materials move at between 3% and 30% of the speed of light in a vacuum. The use of copper connections on silicon devices is one way to increase the speed of electrons, and it is quite possible that additional advances will push closer still to the actual speed of light. In addition, there have been some experiments with tiny optical fibers as interconnects within and between chips, based on the fact that the speed of light in glass is more than 60% of the speed of light in a vacuum. One obstacle to such optical fibers is the inefficiency conversion between electricity and light and vice versa, resulting in both power-consumption and heat-dissipation problems.
That said, absent some fundamental advances in the field of physics, any exponential increases in the speed of data flow will be sharply limited by the actual speed of light in a vacuum.
Paul E. McKenney 2011-12-16